Botswana 0–3 Congo DR: Result & Stats

Botswana

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Congo DR

G. Kakuta 60', 41' (pen)

N. Mbuku 31'

12/30/2025

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Al-Barid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Botswana12%

×Draw30%

Congo DR57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BotswanaExpected goals in this matchCongo DR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.40

1.23

Botswana

0.40

Congo DR

1.23

Congo DR creates 207% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

0.00

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Botswana

0.00

Congo DR

1.20

allows per match

Botswana

1.25

Congo DR

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botswana+0.00on par

Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botswana ↓

Congo DR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–124%

0–215%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–12%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Botswana or draw

43%

Botswana or Congo DR

70%

Draw or Congo DR

88%

Winning margin

Botswana wins by 2+

2%

Congo DR wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Botswana 1+ goals

33%

Botswana 2+ goals

6%

Botswana 3+ goals

1%

Congo DR 1+ goals

71%

Congo DR 2+ goals

35%

Congo DR 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Botswana (draw refunded)

17%

Congo DR (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botswana at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botswana attack 0.00 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.40

Congo DR attack 1.20 + Botswana defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Botswana scores more

12%

level

30%

Congo DR scores more

57%

Congo DR at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Congo DR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

G. Kakuta

Congo DR · M

8.7

Match Events

31'

N. Mbuku↳ G. Kakuta

38'

Meschack EliaGoal confirmed

41'

G. KakutaPenalty

46'

T. Kopelang← T. Ditlhokwe

56'

C. Molefe← K. Seakanyeng

56'

T. Orebonye← S. Boy

57'

T. Bongonda← M. Elia

57'

M. Balikwisha← N. Mbuku

60'

G. Kakuta↳ T. Bongonda

66'

Fiston MayeleGoal cancelled

71'

G. Modingwane← G. Mohutsiwa

71'

M. Enosa← G. Baruti

74'

S. Essende← G. Kakuta

74'

N. Sadiki← C. Pickel

89'

B. Cipenga← F. Mayele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotswanaCongo

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots28

0Corners3

6Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots28

1On Target6

4Off Target19

1Blocked3

2Inside Box18

4Outside Box10

Passing

45%Possession55%

451Total Passes538

391Accurate Passes481

87%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls16

4Offsides2