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Botev Vratsa vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
6/12/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Botev Vratsa43%
×Draw29%
Tsarsko Selo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.20
Tsarsko Selo
0.91

Botev Vratsa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 48 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
72%
Botev Vratsa or Tsarsko Selo
71%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
57%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
19%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
70%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
34%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
12%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
60%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
23%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
60%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
43%
level
29%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
28%

Botev Vratsa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Vratsa 0–1 Tsarsko Selo

Tsarsko Selo beat Botev Vratsa 1-0 in First League on June 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.