Botev Vratsa 2–0 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Botev Vratsa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Varna

A. Stoyanov 90'

J. Gallegos 76'

12/4/2025

First League · Round 18Hristo Botev Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Botev Vratsa51%

×Draw28%

Spartak Varna21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.78

Botev Vratsa

1.39

Spartak Varna

0.78

Botev Vratsa creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.80

creates per match

0.63

0.94

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

0.80

Spartak Varna

0.63

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

0.94

Spartak Varna

1.97

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa-0.09on par

Spartak Varna+0.02on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

79%

Botev Vratsa or Spartak Varna

72%

Draw or Spartak Varna

49%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

25%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

75%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

40%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

16%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

54%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

18%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

71%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.97 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 0.80 + Spartak Varna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.39

Spartak Varna attack 0.63 + Botev Vratsa defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

51%

level

28%

Spartak Varna scores more

21%

Botev Vratsa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Tsonev

Botev Vratsa · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

Arian Kabashi

24'

Ivan Aleksiev

42'

Alexander Georgiev

46'

E. Yanchev← A. Georgiev

46'

K. Kurbanov← I. Aleksiev

53'

Z. Pehlivanov← I. Budinov

62'

V. Naydenov← D. Genov

63'

J. Gallegos← R. Ivey

73'

S. Moukachar← Berna

74'

M. Smolenski← K. Malinov

76'

J. Gallegos

79'

Dimitar Evtimov

82'

L. Vasilev← M. Petkov

83'

A. Stoyanov← R. Tsonev

86'

N. Pahama← D. Yordanov

90'

A. Stoyanov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotevSpartak

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots2

2.10Expected Goals (xG)0.14

6Corners0

10Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots2

7On Target1

8Off Target1

4Blocked0

13Inside Box0

6Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

457Total Passes247

387Accurate Passes177

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides0