Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Pleven

Botev Vratsa

CANC

00:00

Spartak Pleven

2/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Botev Vratsa61%

×Draw22%

Spartak Pleven17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Pleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.87

Botev Vratsa

1.88

Spartak Pleven

0.87

Botev Vratsa creates 116% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.60

creates per match

0.54

1.20

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

1.60

Spartak Pleven

0.54

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

1.20

Spartak Pleven

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Spartak Pleven →

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

83%

Botev Vratsa or Spartak Pleven

78%

Draw or Spartak Pleven

39%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

36%

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

85%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

56%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

29%

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

58%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

22%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

78%

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.60 + Spartak Pleven defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.88

Spartak Pleven attack 0.54 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

61%

level

22%

Spartak Pleven scores more

17%

Botev Vratsa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff