Botev Vratsa 0–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Botev Vratsa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

10/18/2024

First League · Round 8Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Botev Vratsa42%

×Draw30%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.90

Botev Vratsa

1.17

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.90

Botev Vratsa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

0.79

creates per match

0.72

1.07

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

0.79

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.72

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

1.07

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.54

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Botev Vratsa-0.12scores less

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

72%

Botev Vratsa or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

70%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

58%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

18%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

69%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

33%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

11%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

59%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

23%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

60%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.54 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 0.79 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 0.72 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

42%

level

30%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

28%

Botev Vratsa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

S. Tsonkov

Botev Vratsa · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

29'

43'

57'

62'

70'

M. Majouga← B. Traorè

70'

M. Smolenski← D. Kondrakov

73'

D. Polonskyi← H. Ivanov

73'

79'

82'

83'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotevLokomotiv

Overview

37%Possession63%

5Total Shots10

0.61Expected Goals (xG)0.87

2Corners4

16Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots10

2On Target1

2Off Target3

1Blocked5

3Inside Box4

2Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

236Total Passes465

171Accurate Passes381

72%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0

First League: Botev Vratsa 0–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv drew 0-0 in First League on October 18, 2024.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.

Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

First League: Botev Vratsa 0–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv