Botev Vratsa 0–0 Dobrudzha: Result & Stats

Botev Vratsa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dobrudzha

2/16/2026

First League · Round 21Hristo Botev Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Vratsa47%

×Draw29%

Dobrudzha24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.80

Botev Vratsa

1.25

Dobrudzha

0.80

Botev Vratsa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 19 away

1.04

creates per match

0.47

1.12

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

1.04

Dobrudzha

0.47

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

1.12

Dobrudzha

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

76%

Botev Vratsa or Dobrudzha

71%

Draw or Dobrudzha

53%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

21%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

71%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

36%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

13%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

55%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

19%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

66%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Dobrudzha defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dobrudzha attack 0.47 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

47%

level

29%

Dobrudzha scores more

24%

Botev Vratsa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff