Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna

Botev Vratsa

Preview

16:30

Cherno More Varna

7/19/2026

First League · Round 1Hristo Botev Stadium

Big match

36%

Cherno More Varna

model favours

35%29%36%

Botev Vratsa are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Botev Vratsa35%

×Draw29%

Cherno More Varna36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchCherno More Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.09

Botev Vratsa

1.07

Cherno More Varna

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 136 away

1.04

creates per match

1.06

1.12

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

1.04

Cherno More Varna

1.06

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

1.12

Cherno More Varna

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Cherno More Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

64%

Botev Vratsa or Cherno More Varna

71%

Draw or Cherno More Varna

65%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

14%

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

66%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

29%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

9%

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals

66%

Cherno More Varna 2+ goals

30%

Cherno More Varna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

49%

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

35%

level

29%

Cherno More Varna scores more

36%

Cherno More Varna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Botev Vratsa score first in only 20% of matches
Cherno More Varna are unbeaten in 6 straight
Botev Vratsa have scored in 7 games running
Cherno More Varna have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Vratsa

WDWD

Varna

DDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff