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Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
11/4/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Ogosta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Botev Vratsa35%
×Draw29%
Cherno More Varna36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.07
Cherno More Varna
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 136 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
64%
Botev Vratsa or Cherno More Varna
71%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
65%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
14%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
66%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
29%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
9%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
66%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
30%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
49%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
35%
level
29%
Cherno More Varna scores more
36%

Cherno More Varna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Vratsa 2–1 Cherno More Varna

Botev Vratsa beat Cherno More Varna 2-1 in First League on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Ogosta Stadium in Montana.