Botev Vratsa vs Arda Kardzhali

Botev Vratsa

Preview

16:00

Arda Kardzhali

2/27/2027

First League · Round 20Hristo Botev Stadium

Big match

36%

Botev Vratsa

model favours

36%29%34%

Botev Vratsa are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Botev Vratsa36%

×Draw29%

Arda Kardzhali34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.06

Botev Vratsa

1.10

Arda Kardzhali

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 120 away

1.04

creates per match

0.99

1.12

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

1.04

Arda Kardzhali

0.99

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

1.12

Arda Kardzhali

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

66%

Botev Vratsa or Arda Kardzhali

71%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

64%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

15%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

67%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

30%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

10%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

65%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

29%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

51%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

36%

level

29%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

34%

Botev Vratsa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Botev Vratsa score first in only 20% of matches
Botev Vratsa have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Vratsa

WDWD

Kardzhali

LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff