Botev Vratsa 1–0 Arda Kardzhali: Result & Stats

Botev Vratsa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arda Kardzhali

M. Petkov 62'

7/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Botev Vratsa42%

×Draw26%

Arda Kardzhali33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.25

Botev Vratsa

1.45

Arda Kardzhali

1.25

Botev Vratsa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.60

creates per match

1.30

1.20

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

1.60

Arda Kardzhali

1.30

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

1.20

Arda Kardzhali

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

67%

Botev Vratsa or Arda Kardzhali

74%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

58%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

20%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

77%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

42%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

18%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

71%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

36%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

56%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.60 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.30 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

42%

level

26%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

33%

Botev Vratsa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

M. Petkov

Botev

Arda

⚽

Manager: Todor Simov

Botev Vratsa substitutes

StoyanovTsonevGenovAchkovStefanovMechevNaydenovBorukov

Manager: Blagov Tunchev Aleksander

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa vs Arda Kardzhali

Botev Vratsa beat Arda Kardzhali 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2026.

Goals: M. Petkov (62').

Botev Vratsa vs Arda Kardzhali — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa vs Arda Kardzhali