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Botev Vratsa vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2026

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
2/22/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Botev Vratsa36%
×Draw29%
Arda Kardzhali34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.10
Arda Kardzhali
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 120 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
66%
Botev Vratsa or Arda Kardzhali
71%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
64%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
15%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
67%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
30%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
10%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
65%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
29%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
51%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
36%
level
29%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
34%

Botev Vratsa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Vratsa 3–1 Arda Kardzhali

Botev Vratsa beat Arda Kardzhali 3-1 in First League on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.