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Botev Vratsa II vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
4 – 1
Tryavna
Tryavna
10/4/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 9Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Botev Vratsa II63%
×Draw19%
Tryavna18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
2.25
Tryavna
1.10

Botev Vratsa II creates 105% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 39 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
82%
Botev Vratsa II or Tryavna
81%
Draw or Tryavna
37%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
40%
Tryavna wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
89%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
65%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
39%
Tryavna 1+ goals
67%
Tryavna 2+ goals
30%
Tryavna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
78%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.25

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
63%
level
19%
Tryavna scores more
18%

Botev Vratsa II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa II vs Tryavna

Botev Vratsa II beat Tryavna 4-1 in Third League - Northwest on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Lukovit.