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Botev Vratsa II vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
2 – 1
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
9/20/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 7Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Botev Vratsa II57%
×Draw21%
Parva atomna22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
2.09
Parva atomna
1.22

Botev Vratsa II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
78%
Botev Vratsa II or Parva atomna
79%
Draw or Parva atomna
43%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
35%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
88%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
62%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
34%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
70%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
34%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
72%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.09

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
57%
level
21%
Parva atomna scores more
22%

Botev Vratsa II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Botev Vratsa II 2–1 Parva atomna

Botev Vratsa II beat Parva atomna 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Lukovit.