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Botev Vratsa II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
5/3/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 26Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Botev Vratsa II24%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
1.31
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.04

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 43 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.51

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
46%
Botev Vratsa II or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
76%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
10%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
73%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
38%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
14%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
60%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
31%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 2.51 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
24%
level
21%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
54%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Botev Vratsa II 5-1 in Third League - Northwest on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.