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Botev Vratsa II vs Dunav Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
0 – 2
Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
10/27/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 12Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Botev Vratsa II30%
×Draw24%
Dunav Lom45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
1.31
Dunav Lom
1.65

Dunav Lom creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 7 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Dunav Lom
1.71

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Dunav Lom
1.00

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Dunav Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
55%
Botev Vratsa II or Dunav Lom
76%
Draw or Dunav Lom
70%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
13%
Dunav Lom wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
73%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
38%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
14%
Dunav Lom 1+ goals
81%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
49%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
40%
Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Dunav Lom away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Dunav Lom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dunav Lom attack 1.71 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
30%
level
24%
Dunav Lom scores more
45%

Dunav Lom at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa II vs Dunav Lom

Dunav Lom beat Botev Vratsa II 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.