Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botev Plovdiv vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
8/10/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Botev Plovdiv47%
×Draw28%
Tsarsko Selo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
1.35
Tsarsko Selo
0.89

Botev Plovdiv creates 52% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 48 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.08
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
75%
Botev Plovdiv or Tsarsko Selo
72%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
53%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
23%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
74%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
39%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
15%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
59%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
22%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
66%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
47%
level
28%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
25%

Botev Plovdiv at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Plovdiv 0–2 Tsarsko Selo

Tsarsko Selo beat Botev Plovdiv 2-0 in First League on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.