Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Slavia Sofia: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slavia Sofia

10/18/2025

First League · Round 12Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Botev Plovdiv44%

×Draw27%

Slavia Sofia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev PlovdivExpected goals in this matchSlavia Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.04

Botev Plovdiv

1.34

Slavia Sofia

1.04

Botev Plovdiv creates 29% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 138 away

1.34

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.34

Slavia Sofia

1.00

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.08

Slavia Sofia

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Slavia Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw

71%

Botev Plovdiv or Slavia Sofia

73%

Draw or Slavia Sofia

56%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

20%

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

74%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

39%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

15%

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

65%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

28%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

60%

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 138 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more

44%

level

27%

Slavia Sofia scores more

29%

Botev Plovdiv at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff