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Botev Plovdiv vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
1/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Botev Plovdiv63%
×Draw22%
Maritsa Plovdiv15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
1.87
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.79

Botev Plovdiv creates 137% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
2.24
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.10

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
0.47
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.50

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
85%
Botev Plovdiv or Maritsa Plovdiv
78%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
37%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
37%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
85%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
56%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
29%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
55%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
19%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
80%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 2.24 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.87

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.10 + Botev Plovdiv defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
63%
level
22%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
15%

Botev Plovdiv at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Maritsa Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv beat Maritsa Plovdiv 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 15, 2026.