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Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
9/30/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Botev Plovdiv34%
×Draw28%
Levski Sofia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
1.15
Levski Sofia
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 138 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.08
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
61%
Botev Plovdiv or Levski Sofia
72%
Draw or Levski Sofia
66%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
14%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
68%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
32%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
11%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
71%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
36%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
47%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
34%
level
28%
Levski Sofia scores more
39%

Levski Sofia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Plovdiv 0–1 Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Botev Plovdiv 1-0 in First League on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv.