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Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Krumovgrad — First League 2018

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
12/5/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Botev Plovdiv48%
×Draw28%
Levski Krumovgrad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
1.35
Levski Krumovgrad
0.88

Botev Plovdiv creates 53% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 37 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Levski Krumovgrad
0.68

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.08
Levski Krumovgrad
1.35

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
76%
Botev Plovdiv or Levski Krumovgrad
72%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
52%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
23%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
74%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
39%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
15%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
59%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
22%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
66%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Levski Krumovgrad attack 0.68 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
48%
level
28%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
24%

Botev Plovdiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Krumovgrad

Botev Plovdiv beat Levski Krumovgrad 1-0 in First League on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv.