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Botev Plovdiv vs Beroe — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beroe
Beroe
O. M. Chidera 82'
S. Kalu 59'
D. Tonev 57'
B. Hein 14'
7/12/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Botev Plovdiv58%
×Draw21%
Beroe21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
2.02
Beroe
1.14

Botev Plovdiv creates 77% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
2.24
Beroe
1.80

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
0.47
Beroe
1.80

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
79%
Botev Plovdiv or Beroe
79%
Draw or Beroe
42%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
34%
Beroe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
87%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
60%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
33%
Beroe 1+ goals
68%
Beroe 2+ goals
32%
Beroe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
73%
Beroe (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Beroe away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 2.24 + Beroe defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Beroe attack 1.80 + Botev Plovdiv defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
58%
level
21%
Beroe scores more
21%

Botev Plovdiv at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
B. Hein
57'
D. Tonev
59'
S. Kalu
82'
O. M. Chidera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv vs Beroe

Botev Plovdiv beat Beroe 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 12, 2026.

Goals: B. Hein (14'), D. Tonev (57'), S. Kalu (59'), O. M. Chidera (82').