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Botev Plovdiv vs Beroe — First League 2018

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beroe
Beroe
9/30/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Botev Plovdiv46%
×Draw27%
Beroe27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
1.41
Beroe
1.01

Botev Plovdiv creates 40% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 138 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.08
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
73%
Botev Plovdiv or Beroe
73%
Draw or Beroe
54%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
22%
Beroe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
76%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
41%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
17%
Beroe 1+ goals
64%
Beroe 2+ goals
27%
Beroe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
63%
Beroe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Beroe attack 0.93 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
46%
level
27%
Beroe scores more
27%

Botev Plovdiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv vs Beroe

Botev Plovdiv beat Beroe 4-1 in First League on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv.