Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botev Plovdiv III vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
FT
1 – 2
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
5/14/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 35Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III42%
×Draw25%
Rozova dolina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv III
1.48
Rozova dolina
1.25

Botev Plovdiv III creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 136 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.21
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.37
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw
68%
Botev Plovdiv III or Rozova dolina
75%
Draw or Rozova dolina
58%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
21%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
77%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
43%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
19%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
71%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
36%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
57%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more
42%
level
25%
Rozova dolina scores more
32%

Botev Plovdiv III at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Botev Plovdiv III 1–2 Rozova dolina

Rozova dolina beat Botev Plovdiv III 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.