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Botev Plovdiv III vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
11/6/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III41%
×Draw26%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv III
1.44
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.25

Botev Plovdiv III creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.21
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.37
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw
67%
Botev Plovdiv III or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
74%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
59%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
20%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
76%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
42%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
18%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
56%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more
41%
level
26%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
33%

Botev Plovdiv III at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Botev Plovdiv III 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Botev Plovdiv III beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.