Botev Plovdiv III 2–2 FK Svilengrad: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv III

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FK Svilengrad

10/19/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 13Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III48%

×Draw23%

FK Svilengrad28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIIExpected goals in this matchFK Svilengrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.33

Botev Plovdiv III

1.80

FK Svilengrad

1.33

Botev Plovdiv III creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.21

creates per match

1.28

1.37

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III

1.21

FK Svilengrad

1.28

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III

1.37

FK Svilengrad

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

FK Svilengrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw

72%

Botev Plovdiv III or FK Svilengrad

77%

Draw or FK Svilengrad

52%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+

26%

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals

83%

Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals

54%

Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals

27%

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

74%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

38%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)

63%

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.80

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more

48%

level

23%

FK Svilengrad scores more

28%

Botev Plovdiv III at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff