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Botev Plovdiv III vs Asenovets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
FT
2 – 0
Asenovets
Asenovets
3/8/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 23Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III53%
×Draw22%
Asenovets24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv III
1.91
Asenovets
1.22

Botev Plovdiv III creates 57% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 109 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.21
Asenovets
1.07

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.37
Asenovets
2.61

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par
Asenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

Asenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw
76%
Botev Plovdiv III or Asenovets
78%
Draw or Asenovets
47%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
31%
Asenovets wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
85%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
57%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
30%
Asenovets 1+ goals
70%
Asenovets 2+ goals
34%
Asenovets 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
69%
Asenovets (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Asenovets away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + Asenovets defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Asenovets attack 1.07 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more
53%
level
22%
Asenovets scores more
24%

Botev Plovdiv III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botev Plovdiv III 2 – 0 Asenovets

Botev Plovdiv III beat Asenovets 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.