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Botev Plovdiv II vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Second League 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
2/12/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II49%
×Draw26%
Vitosha Bistritsa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
1.48
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.95

Botev Plovdiv II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 21 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.71

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.76

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
76%
Botev Plovdiv II or Vitosha Bistritsa
74%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
51%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
25%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
77%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
43%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
19%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
61%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
25%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
67%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.71 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
49%
level
26%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
24%

Botev Plovdiv II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Vitosha Bistritsa

Botev Plovdiv II beat Vitosha Bistritsa 2-0 in Second League on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.