Botev Plovdiv II 3–2 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Varna

T. Nadi 90'

M. Al Badarin 71'

N. Minkov 28'

G. Chukalov 46'

Y. Andreev 26'

5/9/2022

Second League · Round 36Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II41%

×Draw26%

Spartak Varna33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.23

Botev Plovdiv II

1.40

Spartak Varna

1.23

Botev Plovdiv II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 46 away

1.20

creates per match

1.26

1.20

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Spartak Varna

1.26

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Spartak Varna

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

67%

Botev Plovdiv II or Spartak Varna

74%

Draw or Spartak Varna

59%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

19%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

75%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

41%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

17%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

71%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

35%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

55%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Spartak Varna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spartak Varna attack 1.26 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

41%

level

26%

Spartak Varna scores more

33%

Botev Plovdiv II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

28'

37'

43'

46'

H. Slavkov← G. Argilashki

46'

I. Vasilev← A. Baroan

46'

G. Chukalov

56'

M. Al Badarin← M. Fanyé

59'

G. Babaliev← V. Boev

71'

M. Al Badarin

83'

G. Georgiev← T. Iliev

83'

L. Chițanu← D. Nachev

84'

N. Ivanov← Y. Andreev

84'

V. Lyubomirov← I. Kolev

86'

D. Balinov← I. Ivanov

86'

D. Proychev← B. Bonev

90'

T. Nadi

Botev

Spartak

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Stoyanov

46'▲H. Slavkov←▼G. Argilashki

46'▲I. Vasilev←▼A. Baroan

56'▲M. Al Badarin←▼M. Fanyé

86'▲D. Balinov←▼I. Ivanov

86'▲D. Proychev←▼B. Bonev

Botev Plovdiv II substitutes

SlavkovVasilevBadarinBalinovProychevTsonchevKasov

Manager: V. Petrov

59'▲G. Babaliev←▼V. Boev

83'▲G. Georgiev←▼T. Iliev

83'▲L. Chițanu←▼D. Nachev

84'▲N. Ivanov←▼Y. Andreev

84'▲V. Lyubomirov←▼I. Kolev

Spartak Varna substitutes

BabalievGeorgievChițanuIvanovLyubomirovDichevskiYanakiev

Second League: Botev Plovdiv II 3–2 Spartak Varna

Botev Plovdiv II beat Spartak Varna 3-2 in Second League on May 9, 2022.

Goals: Y. Andreev (26'), N. Minkov (28'), G. Chukalov (46'), M. Al Badarin (71'), T. Nadi (90').

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.

Botev Plovdiv II vs Spartak Varna — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Botev Plovdiv II 3–2 Spartak Varna