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Botev Plovdiv II vs Montana — Second League 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Montana
Montana
11/13/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II31%
×Draw29%
Montana40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
1.03
Montana
1.21

Montana creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 97 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Montana
1.22

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Montana
0.86

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
60%
Botev Plovdiv II or Montana
71%
Draw or Montana
69%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
12%
Montana wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
64%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
28%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
9%
Montana 1+ goals
70%
Montana 2+ goals
34%
Montana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
44%
Montana (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Montana defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Montana attack 1.22 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
31%
level
29%
Montana scores more
40%

Montana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Botev Plovdiv II 4–1 Montana

Botev Plovdiv II beat Montana 4-1 in Second League on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.