Botev Plovdiv II 1–0 Maritsa Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Maritsa Plovdiv

9/17/2022

Second League · Round 10Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II51%

×Draw26%

Maritsa Plovdiv24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchMaritsa Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.97

Botev Plovdiv II

1.54

Maritsa Plovdiv

0.97

Botev Plovdiv II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 52 away

1.20

creates per match

0.75

1.20

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Maritsa Plovdiv

0.75

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

76%

Botev Plovdiv II or Maritsa Plovdiv

74%

Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv

49%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

26%

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

79%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

45%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

20%

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals

62%

Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals

25%

Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

68%

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 0.75 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

51%

level

26%

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more

24%

Botev Plovdiv II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff