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Botev Plovdiv II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Second League 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
9/2/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 7Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II47%
×Draw26%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
1.46
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.05

Botev Plovdiv II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 76 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.91

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.71

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
73%
Botev Plovdiv II or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
74%
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
53%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
23%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
77%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
43%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
18%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
63%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 0.91 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
47%
level
26%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
27%

Botev Plovdiv II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Botev Plovdiv II 0–2 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Botev Plovdiv II 2-0 in Second League on September 2, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.