Botev Plovdiv II 0–1 Litex: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Litex

N. Georgiev 22'

9/4/2022

Second League · Round 8Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II41%

×Draw29%

Litex31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchLitex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.02

Botev Plovdiv II

1.22

Litex

1.02

Botev Plovdiv II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 110 away

1.20

creates per match

0.84

1.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Litex

0.84

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Litex

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Litex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

69%

Botev Plovdiv II or Litex

71%

Draw or Litex

59%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

18%

Litex wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

70%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

34%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

12%

Litex 1+ goals

64%

Litex 2+ goals

27%

Litex 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

57%

Litex (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Litex away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.24 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Litex defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Litex attack 0.84 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

41%

level

29%

Litex scores more

31%

Botev Plovdiv II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

31'

34'

43'

59'

K. Pavlov← D. Balinov

59'

P. Tsonchev← T. Nadi

61'

H. Mladenov← N. Georgiev

68'

G. Georgiev← A. Matić

71'

S. Kosov

74'

N. Gelin← Y. Kasov

84'

Y. Lozanov← E. Ignatov

Botev

Litex

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Milanović

59'▲K. Pavlov←▼D. Balinov

59'▲P. Tsonchev←▼T. Nadi

74'▲N. Gelin←▼Y. Kasov

Botev Plovdiv II substitutes

PavlovTsonchevGelinYordanovZlatanovIvanovPanev

Manager: A. Andreev

61'▲H. Mladenov←▼N. Georgiev

68'▲G. Georgiev←▼A. Matić

84'▲Y. Lozanov←▼E. Ignatov

Litex substitutes

MladenovGeorgievLozanovDermendzhievDurmushChalakovNankov

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Litex

Litex beat Botev Plovdiv II 1-0 in Second League on September 4, 2022.

Goals: N. Georgiev (22').

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.

Botev Plovdiv II vs Litex — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Litex