Botev Plovdiv II 1–0 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hebar 1918

I. Vasilev 33' (pen)

8/13/2021

Second League · Round 5Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II38%

×Draw27%

Hebar 191835%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.24

Botev Plovdiv II

1.30

Hebar 1918

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

1.20

creates per match

1.28

1.20

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Hebar 1918

1.28

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Hebar 1918

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

65%

Botev Plovdiv II or Hebar 1918

73%

Draw or Hebar 1918

62%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

17%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

73%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

37%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

14%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

71%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

35%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

52%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Hebar 1918 attack 1.28 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

38%

level

27%

Hebar 1918 scores more

35%

Botev Plovdiv II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

T. Papazov

33'

I. VasilevPenalty

36'

E. Evgeniev Kolev

46'

D. Gichev← P. Tsonchev

46'

G. Karakashev← A. Bastunov

46'

Z. Petkov← I. Mihaylov

51'

D. Balinov

57'

B. Velichkov← M. Cikarski

57'

D. Tonev← E. Kolev

57'

Z. Pehlivanov← O. Dimitrov

66'

75'

82'

85'

86'

88'

Botev

Hebar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Vasilev

▼

Kolev

Manager: S. Stoyanov

46'▲D. Gichev←▼P. Tsonchev

57'▲B. Velichkov←▼M. Cikarski

57'▲D. Tonev←▼E. Kolev

66'▲N. Gelin←▼K. Dobrev

88'▲Y. Kasov←▼I. Vasilev

Botev Plovdiv II substitutes

GichevVelichkovTonevGelinKasovZemyarskiPanev

Manager: N. Mitov

46'▲G. Karakashev←▼A. Bastunov

46'▲Z. Petkov←▼I. Mihaylov

57'▲Z. Pehlivanov←▼O. Dimitrov

Hebar 1918 substitutes

KarakashevPetkovPehlivanovDishkovVasilevNikolovPapazov

Second League: Botev Plovdiv II 1–0 Hebar 1918

Botev Plovdiv II beat Hebar 1918 1-0 in Second League on August 13, 2021.

Goals: I. Vasilev (33' pen).

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.

Botev Plovdiv II vs Hebar 1918 — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Botev Plovdiv II 1–0 Hebar 1918