Botev Plovdiv II 1–1 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dunav Ruse

9/16/2024

Second League · Round 9Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II36%

×Draw28%

Dunav Ruse37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.19

Botev Plovdiv II

1.17

Dunav Ruse

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 69 away

1.20

creates per match

1.19

1.20

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Dunav Ruse

1.19

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Dunav Ruse

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

63%

Botev Plovdiv II or Dunav Ruse

72%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

64%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

15%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

69%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

33%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

11%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

70%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

33%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

49%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

36%

level

28%

Dunav Ruse scores more

37%

Dunav Ruse at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff