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Botev Plovdiv II vs CSKA Sofia II — Second League 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
4/28/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 33Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II36%
×Draw27%
CSKA Sofia II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
1.23
CSKA Sofia II
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 35 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
CSKA Sofia II
1.31

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
CSKA Sofia II
1.26

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

CSKA Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
63%
Botev Plovdiv II or CSKA Sofia II
73%
Draw or CSKA Sofia II
64%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
15%
CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
71%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
35%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
13%
CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
71%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
36%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
49%
CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.31 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
36%
level
27%
CSKA Sofia II scores more
37%

CSKA Sofia II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs CSKA Sofia II

Botev Plovdiv II beat CSKA Sofia II 4-2 in Second League on April 28, 2025.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.