Botev Plovdiv II 5–0 Beroe II: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beroe II

5/25/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 37Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II71%

×Draw15%

Beroe II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchBeroe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

1.19

Botev Plovdiv II

2.87

Beroe II

1.19

Botev Plovdiv II creates 141% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

2.95

creates per match

0.76

1.63

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

2.95

Beroe II

0.76

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.63

Beroe II

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Beroe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

87%

Botev Plovdiv II or Beroe II

85%

Draw or Beroe II

29%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

51%

Beroe II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

94%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

77%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

53%

Beroe II 1+ goals

70%

Beroe II 2+ goals

33%

Beroe II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

84%

Beroe II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 2.95 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.87

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

71%

level

15%

Beroe II scores more

13%

Botev Plovdiv II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Botev Plovdiv II 5–0 Beroe II

Botev Plovdiv II beat Beroe II 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.

Botev Plovdiv II vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Third League - Southeast: Botev Plovdiv II 5–0 Beroe II