Botev Novi Pazar 2–1 Suvorovo: Result & Stats

Botev Novi Pazar

FT

2 – 1

Suvorovo

9/1/2018

Third League - Northeast · Round 3Stadion Botev (Novi pazar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Botev Novi Pazar21%

×Draw23%

Suvorovo55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Novi PazarExpected goals in this matchSuvorovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.76

Botev Novi Pazar

0.99

Suvorovo

1.76

Suvorovo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

1.07

creates per match

1.85

1.67

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Botev Novi Pazar

1.07

Suvorovo

1.85

allows per match

Botev Novi Pazar

1.67

Suvorovo

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Suvorovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Novi Pazar ↓

Suvorovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Botev Novi Pazar or draw

45%

Botev Novi Pazar or Suvorovo

77%

Draw or Suvorovo

79%

Winning margin

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+

7%

Suvorovo wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals

63%

Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals

26%

Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals

8%

Suvorovo 1+ goals

83%

Suvorovo 2+ goals

52%

Suvorovo 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

28%

Suvorovo (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 90 matches

Suvorovo away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Suvorovo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Suvorovo attack 1.85 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Botev Novi Pazar scores more

21%

level

23%

Suvorovo scores more

55%

Suvorovo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Novi Pazar vs Suvorovo

Botev Novi Pazar beat Suvorovo 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Botev (Novi pazar).

Botev Novi Pazar vs Suvorovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Botev Novi Pazar vs Suvorovo