Botev Lukovit 2–2 Yantra Gabrovo: Result & Stats

Botev Lukovit

FT

2 – 2

Yantra Gabrovo

3/31/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 21Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Botev Lukovit33%

×Draw23%

Yantra Gabrovo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev LukovitExpected goals in this matchYantra Gabrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.74

Botev Lukovit

1.50

Yantra Gabrovo

1.74

Yantra Gabrovo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.87

creates per match

2.60

0.87

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Botev Lukovit

1.87

Yantra Gabrovo

2.60

allows per match

Botev Lukovit

0.87

Yantra Gabrovo

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Lukovit ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Botev Lukovit or draw

57%

Botev Lukovit or Yantra Gabrovo

77%

Draw or Yantra Gabrovo

67%

Winning margin

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

16%

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

78%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

44%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

19%

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

82%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

52%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

43%

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Lukovit at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Lukovit attack 1.87 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Botev Lukovit defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botev Lukovit scores more

33%

level

23%

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

43%

Yantra Gabrovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff