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Botev Lukovit vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Lukovit
Botev Lukovit
FT
1 – 1
Tryavna
Tryavna
3/17/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 19Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Botev Lukovit74%
×Draw17%
Tryavna10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Lukovit
2.38
Tryavna
0.74

Botev Lukovit creates 222% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 39 away

creates per match

Botev Lukovit
1.87
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Botev Lukovit
0.87
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Lukovit ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Botev Lukovit or draw
90%
Botev Lukovit or Tryavna
83%
Draw or Tryavna
26%

Winning margin

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+
50%
Tryavna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals
91%
Botev Lukovit 2+ goals
68%
Botev Lukovit 3+ goals
42%
Tryavna 1+ goals
52%
Tryavna 2+ goals
17%
Tryavna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)
88%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Lukovit at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Lukovit attack 1.87 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.38

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Botev Lukovit defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Botev Lukovit scores more
74%
level
17%
Tryavna scores more
10%

Botev Lukovit at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Botev Lukovit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Lukovit vs Tryavna

Botev Lukovit and Tryavna drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit).