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Botev Lukovit vs Kom Berkovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Lukovit
Botev Lukovit
FT
5 – 0
Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
4/26/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 25Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Botev Lukovit59%
×Draw23%
Kom Berkovitsa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Lukovit
1.85
Kom Berkovitsa
0.93

Botev Lukovit creates 99% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Botev Lukovit
1.87
Kom Berkovitsa
0.98

allows per match

Botev Lukovit
0.87
Kom Berkovitsa
1.82

finishing

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par
Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Lukovit ↓

Kom Berkovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Botev Lukovit or draw
81%
Botev Lukovit or Kom Berkovitsa
77%
Draw or Kom Berkovitsa
41%

Winning margin

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+
34%
Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals
84%
Botev Lukovit 2+ goals
55%
Botev Lukovit 3+ goals
28%
Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
61%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
24%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)
76%
Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Lukovit at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Kom Berkovitsa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Lukovit attack 1.87 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kom Berkovitsa attack 0.98 + Botev Lukovit defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Botev Lukovit scores more
59%
level
23%
Kom Berkovitsa scores more
19%

Botev Lukovit at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Botev Lukovit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Lukovit vs Kom Berkovitsa

Botev Lukovit beat Kom Berkovitsa 5-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit).