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Botev Ihtiman vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
2/28/2026Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Botev Ihtiman49%
×Draw23%
Slavia Sofia II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.81
Slavia Sofia II
1.31

Botev Ihtiman creates 38% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 70 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
72%
Botev Ihtiman or Slavia Sofia II
77%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
51%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
27%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
84%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
54%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
27%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
73%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
38%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
64%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.81

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
49%
level
23%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
28%

Botev Ihtiman at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Botev Ihtiman 0–0 Slavia Sofia II

Botev Ihtiman and Slavia Sofia II drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 28, 2026.