Botev Ihtiman 1–0 Septemvri Sofia II

Botev Ihtiman

FT

1 – 0

Septemvri Sofia II

3/15/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 25Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Botev Ihtiman49%

×Draw24%

Septemvri Sofia II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev IhtimanExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.24

Botev Ihtiman

1.73

Septemvri Sofia II

1.24

Botev Ihtiman creates 40% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 88 away

1.63

creates per match

1.19

1.29

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman

1.63

Septemvri Sofia II

1.19

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman

1.29

Septemvri Sofia II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw

73%

Botev Ihtiman or Septemvri Sofia II

76%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia II

51%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

26%

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

82%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

52%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

25%

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals

71%

Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals

35%

Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

64%

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more

49%

level

24%

Septemvri Sofia II scores more

27%

Botev Ihtiman at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff