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Botev Ihtiman vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
1 – 2
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
8/10/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 2Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Botev Ihtiman64%
×Draw20%
Perun Kresna16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
2.10
Perun Kresna
0.94

Botev Ihtiman creates 123% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 26 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
84%
Botev Ihtiman or Perun Kresna
80%
Draw or Perun Kresna
36%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
40%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
88%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
62%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
35%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
61%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
24%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
80%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.10

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
64%
level
20%
Perun Kresna scores more
16%

Botev Ihtiman at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Botev Ihtiman 1–2 Perun Kresna

Perun Kresna beat Botev Ihtiman 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Ihtiman.