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Botev Ihtiman vs Oborishte — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Oborishte
Oborishte
11/3/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Botev Ihtiman43%
×Draw24%
Oborishte32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.59
Oborishte
1.34

Botev Ihtiman creates 19% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 132 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Oborishte
1.39

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Oborishte
1.56

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Oborishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
68%
Botev Ihtiman or Oborishte
76%
Draw or Oborishte
57%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
22%
Oborishte wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
80%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
47%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
21%
Oborishte 1+ goals
74%
Oborishte 2+ goals
39%
Oborishte 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
57%
Oborishte (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Oborishte attack 1.39 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
43%
level
24%
Oborishte scores more
32%

Botev Ihtiman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Ihtiman vs Oborishte

Botev Ihtiman and Oborishte drew 2-2 in Third League - Southwest on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Ihtiman.