Botev Ihtiman 0–1 Levski Rakovski: Result & Stats

Botev Ihtiman

FT

0 – 1

Levski Rakovski

11/5/2022

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 14Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Botev Ihtiman57%

×Draw22%

Levski Rakovski21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev IhtimanExpected goals in this matchLevski Rakovski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.08

Botev Ihtiman

1.91

Levski Rakovski

1.08

Botev Ihtiman creates 77% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 16 away

1.63

creates per match

0.88

1.29

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman

1.63

Levski Rakovski

0.88

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman

1.29

Levski Rakovski

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Levski Rakovski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw

79%

Botev Ihtiman or Levski Rakovski

78%

Draw or Levski Rakovski

43%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

33%

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

85%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

57%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

30%

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals

66%

Levski Rakovski 2+ goals

29%

Levski Rakovski 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

73%

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.91

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more

57%

level

22%

Levski Rakovski scores more

21%

Botev Ihtiman at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff