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Botev Ihtiman vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hebar II
Hebar II
5/18/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 35Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Botev Ihtiman54%
×Draw25%
Hebar II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.62
Hebar II
0.92

Botev Ihtiman creates 76% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 38 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
79%
Botev Ihtiman or Hebar II
75%
Draw or Hebar II
46%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
29%
Hebar II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
80%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
48%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
22%
Hebar II 1+ goals
60%
Hebar II 2+ goals
23%
Hebar II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
72%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
54%
level
25%
Hebar II scores more
21%

Botev Ihtiman at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botev Ihtiman 1 – 2 Hebar II

Hebar II beat Botev Ihtiman 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Ihtiman.