Botafogo W 0–2 Gremio W: Result & Stats

Botafogo W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Gremio W

3/21/2024

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Botafogo W32%

×Draw26%

Gremio W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo WExpected goals in this matchGremio W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.39

Botafogo W

1.19

Gremio W

1.39

Gremio W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 55 away

0.90

creates per match

1.13

1.65

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Botafogo W

0.90

Gremio W

1.13

allows per match

Botafogo W

1.65

Gremio W

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo W+0.00on par

Gremio W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo W ↓

Gremio W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Botafogo W or draw

59%

Botafogo W or Gremio W

74%

Draw or Gremio W

68%

Winning margin

Botafogo W wins by 2+

13%

Gremio W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Botafogo W 1+ goals

70%

Botafogo W 2+ goals

33%

Botafogo W 3+ goals

12%

Gremio W 1+ goals

75%

Gremio W 2+ goals

40%

Gremio W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Botafogo W (draw refunded)

44%

Gremio W (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo W at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Gremio W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo W attack 0.90 + Gremio W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gremio W attack 1.13 + Botafogo W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Botafogo W scores more

32%

level

26%

Gremio W scores more

41%

Gremio W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gremio W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff