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Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC — Serie A 2026

Botafogo
Botafogo
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
12/7/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 38Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Botafogo56%
×Draw23%
Fortaleza EC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo
1.83
Fortaleza EC
1.01

Botafogo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Botafogo
1.55
Fortaleza EC
0.97

allows per match

Botafogo
1.05
Fortaleza EC
2.12

finishing

Botafogo+0.45scores more
Fortaleza EC-0.11scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw
79%
Botafogo or Fortaleza EC
77%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
44%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+
32%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals
84%
Botafogo 2+ goals
54%
Botafogo 3+ goals
28%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
64%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
27%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)
73%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.05 · 18 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.12 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.55 + Fortaleza EC defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 + Botafogo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Botafogo scores more
56%
level
23%
Fortaleza EC scores more
21%

Botafogo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Botafogo 4–2 Fortaleza EC

Botafogo beat Fortaleza EC 4-2 in Serie A on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.