Botafogo 0–1 Fluminense: Result & Stats

Botafogo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fluminense

John Kennedy 69'

2/1/2026

League #624 · Round 5Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Botafogo36%

×Draw31%

Fluminense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BotafogoExpected goals in this matchFluminense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.95

Botafogo

1.00

Fluminense

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

0.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Botafogo

1.00

Fluminense

1.20

allows per match

Botafogo

0.71

Fluminense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo+0.00on par

Fluminense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Fluminense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw

67%

Botafogo or Fluminense

69%

Draw or Fluminense

64%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+

14%

Fluminense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals

63%

Botafogo 2+ goals

26%

Botafogo 3+ goals

8%

Fluminense 1+ goals

61%

Fluminense 2+ goals

25%

Fluminense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)

52%

Fluminense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Fluminense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.00 + Fluminense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fluminense attack 1.20 + Botafogo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Botafogo scores more

36%

level

31%

Fluminense scores more

33%

Botafogo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Leo Linck

Botafogo · G

8.9

Match Events

59'

Vitinho← Kadu Santos

59'

Danilo← Allan

59'

S. Rodriguez← K. Barria

64'

L. Acosta← A. Canobbio

64'

K. Serna← S. Moreno

65'

J. Savarino← Lima

66'

A. Montoro← Artur

67'

Jordan Barrera

69'

John Kennedy

77'

John Kennedy

78'

Alex Telles← Nathan Fernandes

79'

Ignácio

81'

Everaldo← John Kennedy

89'

Léo Linck

90+3'

Santiago Rodríguez

90+3'

Nonato← Martinelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoFluminense

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots15

0.24Expected Goals (xG)1.08

3Corners4

16Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots15

0On Target7

7Off Target6

1Blocked2

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

472Total Passes493

406Accurate Passes425

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3