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Botafogo vs Caracas FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Botafogo
Botafogo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
Arthur Cabral 50'
W. Correa 43'
4/9/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Botafogo51%
×Draw26%
Caracas FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo
1.52
Caracas FC
0.92

Botafogo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Botafogo
1.45
Caracas FC
1.20

allows per match

Botafogo
0.64
Caracas FC
1.60

finishing

Botafogo+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw
77%
Botafogo or Caracas FC
74%
Draw or Caracas FC
49%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+
26%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals
78%
Botafogo 2+ goals
45%
Botafogo 3+ goals
20%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
60%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
23%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)
69%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.45 + Caracas FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Caracas FC attack 1.20 + Botafogo defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botafogo scores more
51%
level
26%
Caracas FC scores more
23%

Botafogo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
A. BarbozaBotafogoBotafogo · D
8.5

Match Events

23'
Bastos
29'
Matheus MartinsPenalty cancelled
43'
W. Correa
46'
Arthur Cabral← Matheus Martins
50'
Arthur Cabral
56'
A. Fernandez← S. Gonzalez
56'
C. A. Martinez Aponte← R. Lezama
63'
M. Ponte← Vitinho
63'
J. Barrera← S. Rodriguez
70'
J. Hernandez← Caio Roque
75'
L. Reinoso← A. Figueroa
75'
J. Uribe← M. Covea
80'
K. Barria← Junior Santos
84'
F. La Mantia← W. Correa
86'
Jordan Barrera
90+1'
Alexander Barboza

Possession

71%Botafogo

Shots

15Botafogo

Pass accuracy

55%Botafogo

Statistics

BotafogoCaracas
Overview
71%Possession29%
15Total Shots7
0.76Expected Goals (xG)0.21
7Corners1
10Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots7
4On Target5
7Off Target1
4Blocked1
7Inside Box2
8Outside Box5
Passing
71%Possession29%
561Total Passes238
488Accurate Passes171
87%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
0.51Goals Prevented0.51
Discipline
10Fouls8
3Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Botafogo vs Caracas FC

Botafogo and Caracas FC drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 9, 2026.

Goals: W. Correa (43'), Arthur Cabral (50').

Botafogo controlled possession (71%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.